Archive Archives - Page 9 of 25 - Significance magazine

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How wrong were the presidential polls and predictions?

On 14 July 2016 the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was polling seven points ahead…

Timothy Martyn HillNovember 23, 2016

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Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong

In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…

Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016

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Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors

On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…

Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016

Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy

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The frequency of “America” in America

Official White House Photo by Chuck KennedyOn what was a presumably cold January day in…

Adam B. KashlakOctober 25, 2016

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Does Donald Trump “defy all odds”?

When FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver predicted in June that Donald Trump had a 20 per…

Bernard Baffour and Joshua BonOctober 19, 2016

HMS Terror. Engraving by George Back. via Wikimedia Commons

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HMS Terror wreck found – but what happened to her doomed crew? Here’s the science

HMS Terror. Engraving by George Back. via Wikimedia Commons It remains one of history’s best-known…

Keith MillarSeptember 28, 2016

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A smashing return: Team GB’s Olympic host legacy

Team GB had a phenomenal Olympics in Rio and, in topping its London 2012 medal…

Ray StefaniSeptember 21, 2016

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Closing the communications gap

Professor Dame Anne Glover has spent her entire career generating scientific knowledge; knowledge that has,…

Brian TarranSeptember 9, 2016

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The 2016 Prediction Games – Part II

Now that the sun has set on the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, it’s time to…

Tim PauldenAugust 27, 2016

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Ask a statistician: Why can we not predict earthquakes?

Hundreds of people have been killed since the start of the year as a result…

Brian TarranAugust 25, 2016

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Statistical dinosaurs and other creatures

Evolution is change in the heritable traits of biological populations over successive generations. Through these…

Marco Geraci and Mario Cortina BorjaAugust 23, 2016

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The 2016 Prediction Games – Part I

Prior to the start of the 2016 Olympic Games, over a dozen different groups around…

Tim PauldenAugust 17, 2016

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Making maps

In an extract from her book, Big Data: Does Size Matter?, Timandra Harkness meets data-based…

Timandra HarknessAugust 16, 2016

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The EU referendum: surname diversity and voting patterns

An interesting by-product of the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU has been the…

Mario Cortina Borja, Julian Stander and Luciana Dalla ValleJuly 18, 2016

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Chilcot, part 2: How Tony Blair fumbled Iraq’s child mortality statistics

At a dramatic moment in Tony Blair’s testimony before the Iraq Inquiry back in 2010,…

Michael SpagatJuly 14, 2016

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Chilcot on Iraq’s civilian casualties

The chapter on civilian casualties in the Chilcot report is stuffed with interesting material to…

Michael SpagatJuly 12, 2016

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Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions

England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the…

Brian TarranJune 30, 2016

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EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again

Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…

John CurticeJune 27, 2016

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Lost in the crowd? A statistician explains how to find your friends at a music festival

While mobile phones have all but eradicated the fine art of getting lost, there are…

Nathan CunninghamJune 23, 2016

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The EU referendum – one week to go: extracting insights from Facebook using R

A referendum is being held on 23 June to provide an answer to the question…

JulianJune 20, 2016